Published on May 12th, 2016 | by Daniel Cheeseman0
Who will win the race for the Premier League Golden Boot?
Harry Kane, Jamie Vardy and Sergio Agüero will go into the final weekend of the Premier League in a tense three-way battle for this season’s Golden Boot
Oulala Games have analysed a selection of key stats from the three forwards, to measure their chances of winning the award.
Oulala Games’ data experts have broken down the trio’s shots, minutes per goal, conversion rates, shot accuracy, records since the turn of the year, as well as their recent form and how their opponents rate defensively.
Next match: Newcastle United (A)
Since bursting onto the scene last season, Harry Kane hasn’t stopped scoring. The Tottenham forward has led this year’s Golden Boot race since March following his first-half brace against Bournemouth. Kane has clocked the most Premier League shots (155) and edges Vardy and Agüero for shot accuracy (61%).
Since the turn of the year Kane has scored 14 goals in 18 league appearances, while his recent form stands at four goals in six games.
Spurs travel to Newcastle United on the final day of the season. The Magpies have conceded 23 goals at home this term, an average of 1.3 per game.
Of Kane’s 25 goals, 15 have come away from home, the best record of the three players.
Next Match: Chelsea (A)
The Football Writers’ Player of the Year has had a fantastic campaign. Having broken Ruud van Nistlerooy’s 13-year Premier League record for goals in consecutive games (11), the Leicester City striker is now looking to add the Golden Boot to his Premier League winners medal. Sitting a goal behind Harry Kane with just one game to go, Vardy will be hoping his recent form continues away at Stamford Bridge.
The 29-year-old has a superior conversion rate to Kane and Agüero (22%), having netted his 24 goals from just 111 shots. Of the sides that the three contenders face, Chelsea have conceded the most home goals this season (29).
Ten of Vardy’s 24 goals have come on the road.
Next Match: Swansea City (A)
Suffering yet another injury plagued season, Sergio Agüero has registered the fewest appearances of the golden trio (29). Looking at the Argentine’s stats it could be argued that a fully fit Agüero would already have this race sewn up.
The 27-year-old boasts a far superior minutes per goal ratio (95) than both Kane and Vardy. Agüero’s goalscoring in 2016 has also been on another level having netted 17 goals in 17 appearances since the turn of the year and his eight goals in his last six games highlight the forward’s excellent current run of form.
A negative presents itself in the way of Manchester City’s opponents at the weekend – Swansea City. Francesco Guidolin’s side have conceded just 19 goals at the Liberty Stadium this season.
It’s also worth noting that just nine of Agüero’s 24 goals have come away from the Etihad.
Based on form, it seems that Sergio Agüero may swoop in at the last moment.
If we’re looking at opponents then Harry Kane has a shout, as a trip to Newcastle appears to be the best fixture on paper.
Jamie Vardy’s impressive conversion rate could also prove to be the difference maker on Sunday.